Grabbo Gonna Get Kessel Going

Mickey Grabbs is my choice for Leaf of the Week, one of only two Leafs that have stood out for me recently with solid performances (Kulemin is the other). Grabbo has been in on all 3 Leaf goals scored this week (yes, just 3 goals in 3 games for the entire team), scoring twice and assisting on the other. He's currently in a 3-way tie for 2nd in team scoring along with Kessel and Kulemin, each with 9 points after 15 games.
Grabovski's other de facto linemate, MacArthur is the team leader, jumping ahead of the pack by 3 points with 12. That Grabbo's line holds 3 of the top 4 spots in points clearly puts the responsibility for the team's scoring woes on the shoulders of Bozak and Versteeg. Bozak is currently on pace for less then a 30-point season.

Grabovski's real eyebrow-raising stat is his plus/minus. A most pleasing +7, Grabbo leads the team in that department and has only been on the negative side of the ledger once this season (minus 1 in the 4-0 loss to Tampa Bay).

Clarke MacArthur has the 2nd best plus/minus at +6, and in 3rd is, surprise surprise, Tomas Kaberle with a respectable +4. I noticed after the Leafs very depressing 4-1 loss to the Panthers, that Kaberle somehow escaped the night as a +1. Meanwhile, Kabby and Grabbo are now tied for the team lead in Assists with 7 each.

The Importance Of Scoring First

If the Leafs are going to make tracks in the standings, it's imperative that they get on the board first to give themselves the best possible chance of success. The team has scored the first goal of a game at just a 40% rate - 6 times in 15 games - not entirely terrible, but when they do score first, their record is 4-0-2. Ten of a possible 12 points and no losses in regulation.

When their opponents get the first goal, the Leafs are a dismal, and nearly hopeless, 1-7-1. Three of a possible 18 points.

The Importance Of Scoring In The 1st Period

The Leafs record when they score in the 1st period is identical to when they open the scoring. Nine times they've been shut-out through the opening 20 minutes and in those nine games their only victory came in the 4th game, a 4-3 overtime victory against the Rangers in which the Leafs dominated the 2nd period after giving up the opening goal in the 1st. In games when the Leafs do score in the opening period, again the Leafs are 4-0-2 without a loss in regulation.

On the other hand, in the 9 games that the Leafs have been held scoreless in the 1st, the Leafs have followed up that scoreless 1st period 6 times - a 66% ratio - by not scoring again in the 2nd. Awesome. Unbelievably, the Leafs have been shutout through 2 periods of play 6 times already in just 15 games (40%) and shutout completely 3 times (20%).

In the last 8 games, Leaf fans have agonized through scoring droughts that lasted 2 hours 27 minutes 40 seconds AND 2 hours 22 minutes 44 seconds.

The Importance Of Scoring At All

There's nothing more demoralizing then being shutout. Grabovski's latest tally, which broke our second longest shutout streak of the year, was welcome relief, even if it had no impact on the outcome. As bad as it was to lose back-to-back games in Florida, I imagine that without the Grabovski goal, the psychological distress of being blanked for two games in the sunshine state and coming home amidst what would have been a 149:19 run of impotence, might have been near-overwhelming for Wilson and his crew. That one goal, by Grabovski, coming in the 3rd period of a game well out of reach, allowed the Leafs to return from their Florida trip merely embarrassed, and not utterly humiliated.

It makes sense now for Wilson to pair Grabovski with Kessel in an attempt to get the latter going and back on the scoresheet. Because, while Bozak and Versteeg can largely be blamed for the team's offensive slump, it's Kessel's contribution, or lack of, that determines whether we win or lose. I wrote a post on this subject at the end of last season, and after having another look, I've updated my findings. Kessel's production is absolutely vital to the cause; behold:

In the last 41 games, half a season, going back to Feb. 2nd , the first game after acquiring Phaneuf and Giguere...

When Kessel tally’s a goal OR an assist, the Leafs record is:
15-3-2
When Kessel is held without a point, the Leafs record is:
3-14-4

Hopefully Grabovski and Kessel will find a way to put up points together and help turn this sinking ship around. The key to beating the Leafs is obviously to keep Phil Kessel off the scoreboard, so it's a smart move for Wilson right now to do anything he can to get Kessel back on it. And the sooner the better. A first period tally, an early lead, a point for Kessel, is all the Leafs need for there to be a much more positive outlook.

Carry That Weight

Seven Players That Can Lift The Leafs Into The Playoffs

Dion Phaneuf: The player who scored the last Leaf goal in dramatic fashion at the end of last season will be the first player to wear the C on a Maple Leafs uniform since Mats Sundin. Are you as excited as I am about our best six defenceman being led on to the ice by Captain Dion Bone-Crusher Phaneuf? The team finally has a leader who will assume personal responsibility for winning and losing while encouraging confidence and success, and that can only lead to a better team performance.

It took Phaneuf a surprising 25 games to score his first goal as a Maple Leaf. He scored his second goal the very next game, the game winner in overtime, as the Leafs closed the curtain that night on their season. It only took him 6 minutes and 51 seconds to get into his first fight as a Maple Leaf, in the first period of his first game.

After the Great January 31st Overhaul, the Leafs record with Dion in the line-up was 13-10-3. That's not setting the world on fire, but it was the Leafs most consistent stretch of the season, 29 points in 26 games. If they'd have done that for 82 games, the Leafs would have had 91 points and been tied for 6th with Boston.

Tomas Kaberle: Will Frantisek Sr. still be welcome to watch Leafs practices alongside Howard Berger? Toronto's longest serving player will be coming back to the team under an incredible media-microscope and it will be interesting to see how he handles the pressure. With calm dignity and grace, I suspect, if Kabby stays in his usual character.

With no Olympic schedule this year, and with Mike Komisarek returning to the line-up,and Phaneuf taking command, Kabby's workload should be less demanding this season, and more in tune with what Burke and Wilson had originally crafted when they brought in Komi and Beauchemin last summer. As part of this fearsome foursome, Kabby will hopefully be able to do what he does best when the Leafs need it most, giving this dangerous group a deadly playmaking dynamic.

Approaching Maple Leaf milestones for Kaberle this season include surpassing Ron Stewart (9th all-time) and Darryl Sittler (8th) for games played; Iafrate, McCabe, and Hap Day could all be caught for goals-scored by a defenceman; will likely pass George Armstrong for 5th in all-time assists; and could possibly catch Rick Vaive for tenth spot all-time in Leafs scoring.

Phil Kessel: Kessel leads the attack, and Maple Leaf fortunes are directly tied to his contribution. No player will make a bigger difference towards winning and losing on a nightly basis. In the last 26 games of the season last year, the Leafs managed just two wins on nights when Kessel didn't factor into the scoring. The good news is, Kessel gets on the scoresheet a lot, and when he does, the Leafs chances for success improve drastically, and I mean, drastically: From the last 26 games, when Kessel is held off the scoresheet, the Leafs are 2-8-2, but then are 11-2-1 when Kessel records a goal or an assist.

I don't think we need to worry about Kessel's consistency or his ability to score when it counts, the question is can the rest of the team find a way to battle through for the win when Kessel is held in check. A potent weapon, even shut down, should still have the effect of weakening the other side's overall defence.
Mikhail Grabovski: Best hair on the team. At this time last summer, Grabovski was Toronto's fastest rising star, second in popularity to only Luke Schenn. The additions of Kessel and Phaneuf, and the departures of virtually every player who'd come before and many more since, have opened up Grabovski to more critical eyes within Leafs Nation. He still has a number of very loyal supporters, but the novelty has worn off for others who want to see less dipsy and more doodle, and for Grabbo to bring the crazy at appropriate times, when it's constructive and useful.

Wilson seems to have him figured out and hopefully can encourage Grabbo to the next level this season. I pointed this out at the end of last season, but I'll bring it up again; in the 59 games that Grabovski appeared in, the Leafs were a point per game team. 24-24-11. Some people might call that .500. I'm reluctant to. But it's a marked improvement from where we actually think we are. It's competitive. It means that every game we have an equal chance of coming away with a point in the standings. For Leaf fans, this is a huge difference on it's own.

Nikolai Kulemin: The player that I would now rank as Toronto's fastest rising star is Kulemin. Not sure where he ranks in popularity, but he's on the list. Big things will be expected of Kool-Aid this season but it may be that we've found a real diamond in the rough. As the season progressed last year, Kulemin's play and confidence seemed to improve at an accelerating rate, as if gaining its own momentum. The word "blossom" barely does justice to Super-Kule's increasing maturation. In Ron Wilson's words:

"It's simple. He was crawling, then walking, now he's running... He's probably our most complete player now. He's everything you want in a hockey player."
Jonas Gustavsson: What are we going to get from the Monster? It's unfathomable that the Leafs might suffer yet a third goaltending catastrophe. The painful journey that was the Raycroskala boat of death should thankfully be at an end. It's time for other teams to fear our goaltending and our goalie has the best nickname in the league for that. Let this be the beginning of some sort of Felix-Cujo reincarnation, with Giguere in the role of Fuhr-Puppa-Healey-Eddie, and playoff possibilities will look at lot clearer.

After a difficult enough start to his career to earn a Masterton nomination, Gustavsson's numbers were very good down the stretch. 7-2-1 in his last 10 games of the season beginning from the Olympic break. A 2.62 GAA in that run, and a .915 SV%. Finding that form early on and not having any setbacks will be key to the Leafs post-season aspirations.

Mike Komisarek: The Wild Card. I have a feeling if Komisarek can give us 75 games or more this season, no one will be questioning his signing. Let us pray that we don't have another Colaiacovo-Van Ryn situation here because one of the biggest setbacks to the Leafs success last season, and Burke's architecture, was the prolonged absence of Komisarek on the blueline. Mike suited up for just 34 games, picking up 4 assists and 40 penalty minutes. The absence of his physical, punishing style had an impact that can't be measured until we see an entire season of Komisarek getting comfortable and making things comfortable for the rest of our defenders too.

With Phaneuf named Captain while Komisarek rehabbed, the pressure should be off just enough for Komi to be an intense weapon without being a liability. He slots in very nicely into the top four with the now settled and steady Beauchemin, the all-star Kaberle, and the Captain Phaneuf. And with the dynamic young duo of Schenn and Gunnarrson following their lead in spots 5 and 6, this is the most promising defensive line-up for the Leafs that I can ever recall. To break this group up before they'd even played a game together as a unit would have been a tragedy. Komisarek's poise, his experience, his toughness, and his health are going to be needed and will be key to seeing them reach their exciting potential.

This year, the Playoffs!!!1.

Believe it.

Mikhail "Difference Maker" Grabovski

Thought maybe the next one was going to be Kessel, didn't ya? Well, so did I, at the time, when I decided this would be a series. But then I read something insightful and it got me thinking a little...

"did anyone expect the Leafs to miss Grabbo that much? Since his return they are on a tear. Love that crazy bastard."

-JaredOfLondon, Die Hard Blue And White.

Totally agree. It made me realize that Grabbo's presence is really necessary as a secondary scoring threat, and without him, it's too easy for the opposition to focus their defensive muscle on Kessel. While Grabbo hasn't razzled and dazzled quite like he did last year, he's still an effective forechecker who messes with the opposition's heads, and screws with their rhythm and focus, altering the intensity of the game in the Leafs favor.

Then this happened...
That's pretty cool. But here's the real reason Grabbo is this edition's Difference Maker - did you realize that when Grabovski is in the line up for the Leafs, they are a BETTER THEN .500 TEAM? That was the goal, scored by Grabbo himself, that brought them up to the .500 plateau.

Tonight, Grabovski assisted on John Mitchell's 2nd period goal to cue the comeback, and then assisted on Kulemin's 2nd overtime winner of the month, to give the Leafs a 3-2 victory, thus pushing them one win over .500 when Grabbo laces up the skates this season. Grabovski was on the ice, as was Kaberle, for all 3 goals and both finished +3.

The Leafs record this season now stands at 28-35-12. When Grabovski got injured in the first period of the first game of the new year, a January 2nd 3-1 loss to Calgary, the Leafs record, that game included, was 14-19-9. From January 5th to March 7th, the Leafs record in Grabbo's absence was a brutal 6-14-3. Since returning to the line up on March 9th, the Leafs have been on a definitive roll, going 8-2-0.

14-19-9 + 8-2-0 = 22-21-9

or

28-35-12 - 6-14-3 = 22-21-9

Equals BETER THEN .500!

I'm not trying to say that Grabbo alone makes the Leafs awesome, but he makes them at least not horrible. Otherwise, they are. But when Grabovski's in the line-up, the Leafs are competitive, with a better then equal chance of picking up a point. Still not quite good enough to be playoff bound, but .500 is a lot closer then where we are now.

If the Leafs were in fact a .500 team, we would be ahead of Carolina, Florida, Tampa Bay, Columbus, and the Islanders.

Post Game Notes...

MONSTER MARCH! Gustavsson is 7-0-0 for the month, sporting a super-nifty .929 SV% and a 1.93 GAA during this amazing streak.

Kulemin's overtime heroics continue with last night's game winner. That's now 2 overtime goals this month to go along with 3 goals scored in the shoot-out as well. Meanwhile the Leafs now have 7 straight victories in extra-time, all in the last 4 weeks, as their once woeful OT record suddenly begins to balance out.

Welcome Back

One hundred and ninety-eight days. That's how long it's been since Leaf fans were able to celebrate a regular season win. That's how long it's been since we've known what 2 points in the standings felt like. God, it's good to be back in the win column. Oh, how we've missed you, Defiant Maple Leaf. Welcome back, my friend.

And a very special welcome back to the Monster, who provided the Leafs first true act of defiance on the night when he denied the Ducks an early strike with this spectacular save:
Sensational. Now that is defiant. What a difference a Monster makes.

Later, Anaheim's dubious opening goal of the 1st period would set the stage for the Leafs second act of defiance. Just 7 seconds after the goal - a bench minor for abuse of officials at 10:35, assessed during a TV timeout, presumably for over-zealous chirping about the missed goaltender-interference call on Marchant. Could have been quite costly if the Ducks had scored to go up 2-0, but the Leafs continued their defiance with a gutsy and determined penalty kill.

In fact, before the penalty-time had even expired, the Leafs third significant act of defiance occurred. A minute and a half into the Ducks' powerplay, Beauchemin drew a slash from Bobby Ryan, and then, after standing his ground against his former teammate, drew the attention of Corey Perry. Within seconds, the game's hat-trick hero Hagman, along with Stajan, became involved as gloves and sticks fell to the ice. When it was all sorted out, Hagman had the lone Leaf penalty for roughing, while Ryan's initial slashing minor was accompanied by a double-roughing minor to Perry for separate mix-ups with Beauchemin and then Hagman.

Three minutes, forty-two seconds and 2 quick powerplay goals later, the Leafs were in the lead.

In the 2nd period, there was a similar moment, with similar execution. With the Leafs already on the powerplay, Stempniak takes a terrific run at Anahiem's crease-crashng-culprit, Marchant, absolutely ninja-popping him into the boards. As Niedemayer reacts and comes in to engage Stempniak after the hit, our favourite Weeble-Wobbler, Rowdy Grabbo intercepts and jumps on the old warrior's back. Grabovski, who'd scored the Leafs first goal, loses his helmet in the scrum, yet Niedemayer is the one assessed the only penalty for roughing and the Leafs go to their 2nd 5-on-3 advantage. Once again, Hagman makes them pay.
A great save. A bench penalty. An aggressive penalty kill. A dangerous powerplay. Team courage and toughness.

Defiance. Truculence. Victory.

And 2 points.

Rowdy Grabbo And Cowboy Colt

Just wanted to share something funny I noticed thanks to a comment by DGB at, where else, PensionPlanPuppets.

"When did Grabbo turn into Roddy Rowdy Piper?"

Well, if Grabbo is Rowdy Roddy Piper, then Colton Orr must be Cowboy Bob Orton.





















The resemblance is striking and the roles are about the same.
"We're real men... We're the kind of people that come out to fight."

Should be a fun year with Rowdy Grabbo stirring things up like a hilariously popular super-villain now that he has a bodyguard in Cowboy Colton Orr to stand in his corner and watch his back. We may not win every match, but at least our rivals will hate us even more, and we will always, always, have the last laugh.

A Long Dreary Post About Playoff Dreams And Statistical Improbability With A Little Bit Of Optimism At The End

Some statistics to throw out there. Just a reality check, I guess - 'see where we're at. It doesn't seem like the Leafs have been playing that great lately, but it does feel like they're playing better. They have won 2 in a row, and 3 out of 4, and are now 4-3-1 for the month so far. Going back as far as Feb. 19th, exactly a month ago, the Leafs are 8-3-3 in their last 14. That's a winning percentage of .678 over four weeks. Most frustrating, their only regulation losses over that stretch are against Ottawa, Tampa Bay, and Edmonton - teams they should be able beat. If they continue the pace they're on over their remaining 11 games they might pick up another 15 points and finish with 86 points. 90 points is considered the minimum for reaching the playoffs.

Meanwhile, last night, the Carolina Hurricanes picked up a victory, beating up the emotionally drained New Jersey Devils the night after Brodeur's record-setting win. For Carolina, it's a huge win that ties them with Montreal for 7th in the East with 81 points, 3 ahead of the Florida Panthers - the Leafs' opponent for tonight's game. With 2 games in hand however, and 12 more to go on the schedule, the Panthers are still very much in the battle for the last playoff spot.

For the Leafs, the playoff drive, which never really began - in November when it could have mattered - is already done. Newsflash: The Leafs are not going to make the playoffs. You could have said that in December, or even September, and you probably did several times very directly, but a few of us die-hards held out hope and dared to dream of revisiting the post-season. Boundless optimism in the face mediocrity only goes so far, however. "Anything is possible" doesn't sound so good when it's followed up with "though statistically, it's highly improbable".

The Playoff(s!!!1) Dream is over. All that is left is to make it a formality. Toronto's tragic number now sits at 12. That is to say: any combination of points earned by the 8th place team, currently Carolina, and points squandered by the Leafs equalling 12 will mean that the Leafs have been officially eliminated from the Stanley Cup playoffs. To put it simply; 3 Carolina wins (6 points) and 3 Toronto losses (6 points missed) will eliminate the Leafs. That's all. If Carolina wins just 3 of their remaining 10 and Toronto loses only 3 of their remaining 11, both teams will have 87 points and Carolina would advance on most wins. It's reasonable to assume that the Hurricanes are easily going to win at least 3, and just as reasonable to assume the Leafs will lose at least 3, if not 6 or 7. Without a mighty, mighty miracle, it's simply a matter of time.

There are still reasons for optimism however, as I eluded to in my title. Thus, I will present them to you, with bold headings, in a list going down, with numbers going up.

1. OLAS, Grabbo, and Super-Kule. The Leafs have 3 rookies in Schenn, Grabovski, and Kulemin, that have not only survived an NHL season, they've also shown that they can flourish and develop. It'll be interesting to see how each of them matures in their sophomore season, but so far they've all managed to take a big step forwards without hardly any sliding back. Congratulations to all of them for earning their ice-time and deserving the sweater.

2. Kaberle, Kubina, Schenn, White, Finger, Van Ryn, Frogren. I really like this 7-pack of defencemen. I'm happy having every single one of these guys on my team, and as long as this unit can stay healthy (yes, Van Ryn, we're all lookin' at you) for a consistent stretch, I think they're as solid as any group of defenceman from top to bottom. I'm not completely sold on Finger, and Ian White may be the weakest link in the chain here, but I'm hesitant to underestimate either of them anymore. Soft coverage or making bonehead mistakes can be overlooked when you play really, really well most of the time. For this year it's a write-off, but for next year, I'm excited to see what this group can do if they play together over an entire season.

3. The Draft and Brian Burke. I just know he's gonna do something good here. It doesn't matter where we finish in the standings, 'cause Burke'll do whatever it takes to get us the player(s) that he wants. What I'm really hoping for, is that the Leafs somehow acquire a 2nd pick in the top 10, allowing them to draft the younger Schenn, Brayden, and another prospect as well. That is the plan, at least, my plan. Make it happen, Burke old boy. We're counting on you.

And since we're speaking directly, Brian, and as long as you're taking requests; please bring back Belak, okay? That one's vital.

Third Line Charm = Freedom 55

Leafs 5, Oilers 2. A solid effort all around and the Leafs are rewarded with an excellent result. Early on in the evening there was a familiar sound:

"Breaking in down the wing, Jason Blake fires... right on... and Deslauries will... hang on to the puck." /throw to commercial break

Yes, it was Freedom 55, back on the ice, fermenting and pissing his way to two important assists in the 3rd period. Good for him (and good for Ron Wilson), as that's exactly the contribution Blake needs to make on a regular basis. Hopefully this will help Blake realize his role as an effective 3rd line player, inspiring him to play his best in every situation, not just his favorites. Perhaps because of the Blake benching, I've been thinking about Cliff Fletcher's words this summer, which bkblades also made a point about in the GameThread. Remember when the Silver Fox said:

"If you look at our club, we really have only one player you can consider a top-six forward, and that’s Antropov... We have a couple others that are on the fringe of the top-six, but no one else".

Well, the Leafs do in fact have 6 top-six forwards, but Jason Blake ain't one of 'em, anymore then Ian White is.

The top two lines look set and pretty solid. I've been tracking the Leafs statistics the last 6 games, ever since the thrilling Rangers comeback, and a clear pattern of succesful point production has emerged. The victory against the Rangers belonged to the third line, who were in on almost every goal, with John Mitchell as the key motivator. It was the last game Jason Blake made any kind of meaningful contribution. Since then, including tonight's victory over Edmonton, the Leafs have scored a remarkable 24 goals in 6 games, almost all of them coming from the top two lines.

Grabovski has been on fire the past two weeks and is leading the way with 10 points in his last 6 games. His linemates - Hagman and Kulemin - have added 6 points each. This line has found some chemistry, and is clearly capable of carrying the Leaf offence on any night. However, what I like best about this line is that while Kulemin's game still needs a lot of improvement, the potential is there that as he improves, so will the line, and hopefully SuperKule will grow into a top line superstar.

"I don't know how much more you can say about Matt Stajan."

-Jim Ralph

Totally. It's not like Ralphie to be at a loss for words. Matt Stajan has come alive. He's completely convinced me that he's a first or second line player who belongs with Antropov and Ponikarovsky. Amazing, but whatever, it's working.  Stajan had another big night with 3 assists, and now has 9 points in his last 6 games. Ya, 9. I know - wow. He's really come along way since the begining of the season. Sure looks like a top-six player to me this week.

Stajan's linemates, Antropov and Ponikarovsky round out the Leafs top-six. The Lanky Kazakh, with another goal tonight, has kept a point-a-game pace for six games, with 3 goals and 3 assists. Poni, meanwhile, hasn't let a newborn in the house slow him down too much, chipping in with 3 points over the last six games.

I like this top-six, and I think Ron Wilson does too. At this point, the only player I could see replacing Stajan on the Antro-Poni line would be the Captain himself. Hopefully Jason Blake can see the talent and the chemistry on these two lines and will realize that the only way to get top-six ice time is to be the best 3rd or 4th line player on the ice, night after night.

Tonight was definitely a step in the right direction. Now, if they could get their 3rd and 4th lines rolling with the same attitude and regular success, Wilson might soon have this team looking like a serious playoff contender, or even, like a dangerous playoff darkhorse. Jason Blake may be the key in that regard. If he can come to work and accept the role that Wilson gives him with enthusiasm and determination (i.e. Ian White, 5 points in 6 games), the confidence and the expectations of the entire team might be raised.

415!

Finally, I'd like to finish this post with a special congratulations to Tomas Kaberle. Tomas has struggled a bit this season in his own zone, but lately seems to be finding the offensive side of his game again. After last night's game in which Kaberle had a 3-point night,with a goal and 2 assists, he now has 8 points in his last 6 games, and, of more historical importance, equalled and passed Ian Turnbull for 3rd in all-time career points by a Toronto Maple Leafs defenceman, with his 414th and 415th points. Salming, the all-time leader (768) is still a long way off, but Tim Horton (458) could definitely be reached this season. Nicely done, Tomas. Keep 'er goin'.